gotnerfed · index of recordfiled · 2026-07-06 · receipt #gemini-2026-07-06-f9c0e2

RECEIPT#GEMI-2026-07-Ocalm

Gemini (Google)·General chat + multimodal·scored4nerf/ 100

Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck

Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 95% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.

Filed: 2026-07-06
Observed: 2026-07-06
Response window: UNCONTESTED · DAY 30
Jurisdiction: MIT · public

§ 01THE CHANGEBEFORE → AFTER · GENERAL CHAT + MULTIMODAL

− BEFORE · REMOVED2026-07-06

Previous behavior - see linked sources for the exact prior state.

+ AFTER · CURRENT2026-07-06

Current behavior - see the diff and primary sources for confirmation.

PREDICTED IMPACT · EST.LOW CONFIDENCE

USER IMPACTSmall subsetof users on edge configurations

12-MO FINANCIAL DAMAGENegligible direct costsoft friction only

CHURN PRESSURE · 30Dsettledvendor reversed course; trust partially restored

Estimate based on the receipt's Nerf Index (4 / 100), the severity flag, and the kind of change (other). How we estimate ↗

§ 03VENDOR RESPONSE WINDOWCLOSED · UNCONTESTED

Gemini (Google) · response window UNCONTESTEDUNCONTESTED

FILED2026-07-06

MARKED UNCONTESTED2026-08-05

NOW · DAY 45

Gemini (Google) did not respond inside the 30-day window. This receipt now reads as uncontested in the public record.

How the window works ↗Subscribe to updates

§ 04EVIDENCE TRAIL1 SOURCES

CONTEXT · NARRATIVEfiled by gotnerfed · 2026-07-06

Observed 3 receipts over 34 days (cadence ~11d).

Observed 3 receipts over 34 days (cadence ~11d). Last receipt 15 days ago. Most common kind: other.

DETECTED2026-07-06KINDOTHERSEVERITYINFOSOURCES1VENDOR REPLYNONE

PRIMARY SOURCES · CHRONOLOGICAL01 / 01

DOC

gotnerfed forecast model ↗Source · gotnerfed.com

§ 05NEXT STEP · ESCAPE POD4 RANKED ALTS

◆ FREE / OPEN-SOURCE ALTERNATIVES4 ranked replacements for Gemini (Google).avg score 90 / 100

Ollama↗FREE / OSS

MIT·★ 130k

Easiest way to run a local LLM. Pair with Open WebUI for full ChatGPT replacement.

Open WebUI↗FREE / OSS

MIT·★ 95k

The default ChatGPT-replacement self-host. Massive ecosystem.

GLM-5.2 (open weights)↗FREE / OSS

MIT

Permissive (MIT) open-weight model targeting ChatGPT/Claude-class chat and agentic coding without API lock-in - the strongest open option for a self-hosted stack.

DeepSeek-V4 (open weights)↗FREE / OSS

MIT

Drop-in open-weight replacement for the OpenAI/Anthropic chat APIs. Flash is the locally-runnable variant; serve it behind Open WebUI.

List manually curated · last reviewed 2026-05-13Open full picker →