Subsidy Risk Index
Which AI vendors are most likely to silently nerf you next? Predictive risk score based on wrapper status, funding stage, observed cadence, and parent-company depth.
The Twitter/X discourse keeps surfacing this: Replit CEO admitted “we were paying more to Anthropic/OpenAI than we made.” Internal Cursor estimates put $200/mo subs at $2,000+ in compute. VC subsidies are ending. Every AI wrapper SaaS is a ticking nerf bomb — this index ranks them.
Methodology: pure deterministic rubric. Read the math. Source code: lib/subsidy-risk.ts.
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Early-stage (Seed) with VC runway pressure
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Mid-stage (Series B); growth required to raise next round
- ·1 prior critical receipt — repeat risk elevated
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·1 receipt in last 90 days — monitoring
- ·2 prior critical receipts — repeat-offender pattern
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Mid-stage (Series B); growth required to raise next round
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Mid-stage (Series B); growth required to raise next round
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·1 receipt in last 90 days — monitoring
- ·Owned by Microsoft — deeper pockets, lower acute pressure
- ·Wraps a foundation model (compute pass-through risk)
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·1 receipt in last 90 days — monitoring
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·1 receipt in last 90 days — monitoring
- ·Mid-stage (Series B); growth required to raise next round
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·Owned by X Corp — deeper pockets, lower acute pressure
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·Foundation model provider (lower margin pressure)
- ·Owned by Alphabet — deeper pockets, lower acute pressure
The contrarian read
Ranking AI vendors by Nerf Index tells you who has nerfed users in the past. Subsidy Risk tells you who is most likely to nerf you next. The wrappers carrying the highest scores aren't bad companies — they're companies whose unit economics force them to silently degrade as VC subsidies expire. We're predicting the bait-and-switch before it happens.