SCANNING● LIVE DATAUTC 2026-06-29 00:00:00
VENDORS 23RECEIPTS 32CRITICAL 57D 0 NEWv0.9.4-rc1
gotnerfedgotnerfed
ChatGPT Nerf Index31·30-day re-nerf forecast15%·critical receipts0
§ 02OPEN-SOURCE REPLACEMENTS6

Self-hosted, free, or freemium tools that cover the same workflow. Every entry is real software with a public repo and an active community.

OllamaFREE / OSS130k★MIT

Easiest way to run a local LLM. Pair with Open WebUI for full ChatGPT replacement.

  • Run Llama/Mistral/Gemma/DeepSeek locally
  • Ollama-compatible API for any client
  • Brew/winget/curl install
brew install ollama && ollama run llama3.3
! caveat: Needs 16GB+ RAM for usable models. GPU strongly recommended.
Open WebUIFREE / OSS95k★MIT

The default ChatGPT-replacement self-host. Massive ecosystem.

  • ChatGPT-style web UI for any backend (Ollama, OpenAI-compatible)
  • RAG with file uploads
  • Function calling, web search plugin
docker run -p 3000:8080 ghcr.io/open-webui/open-webui:main
! caveat: Best paired with Ollama running locally.
GLM-5.2 (open weights)FREE / OSSMIT

Permissive (MIT) open-weight model targeting ChatGPT/Claude-class chat and agentic coding without API lock-in - the strongest open option for a self-hosted stack.

  • Fully-open (MIT) flagship MoE from Z.ai / Zhipu AI (weights released Jun 2026)
  • ~744B total / ~40B active parameters, 1M-token context (~5x GLM-5.1)
  • Strongest open-weight coding model at release - #2 on Code Arena, ~#3 on FrontierSWE behind only Fable 5 / Opus 4.8
ollama run glm-5.2 (or download weights from HuggingFace: zai-org/GLM-5.2, serve via vLLM/SGLang)
! caveat: MIT, fully open, no usage restrictions. At ~744B params it is multi-GPU / data-center scale - use a hosted provider if you lack the hardware. Note: the hosted Z.ai API routes through China (a data-residency consideration); self-hosting the open weights avoids that.
DeepSeek-V4 (open weights)FREE / OSSMIT

Drop-in open-weight replacement for the OpenAI/Anthropic chat APIs. Flash is the locally-runnable variant; serve it behind Open WebUI.

  • MIT-licensed open-weight MoE: V4-Flash (284B/13B active) + V4-Pro (1.6T/49B active)
  • 1M-token context
  • Near-frontier quality at a fraction of API cost
Download from HuggingFace (deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Flash); serve via vLLM/SGLang
! caveat: Even Flash (284B) needs serious VRAM/multi-GPU; Pro (1.6T) is data-center scale. MIT license, weights fully open.
Mistral Large 3 (open weights)FREE / OSSApache-2.0

Unrestricted (Apache-2.0) open-weight model to replace the OpenAI/Anthropic/Gemini chat APIs in a self-hosted stack.

  • Apache-2.0 open-weight MoE from Mistral AI: 675B total / 41B active
  • 256K context, multimodal (text + vision)
  • Production-grade general-purpose model
ollama run mistral-large-3 (or download weights from HuggingFace: mistralai/Mistral-Large-3-675B-Instruct-2512-BF16, serve via vLLM/SGLang)
! caveat: Apache-2.0, no usage restrictions. December 2025 release. At 675B params it is multi-GPU / data-center scale - use a hosted provider if you lack the hardware.
Qwen3.6 (open weights)FREE / OSSApache-2.0

Permissive (Apache-2.0) open-weight model to back a self-hosted ChatGPT/Claude replacement. The 35B-A3B MoE runs on a single high-RAM machine.

  • Apache-2.0 open-weight family from Alibaba's Qwen team
  • Qwen3.6-35B-A3B MoE (35B total, 3B active) + 27B dense
  • 256K context, extensible to ~1M
ollama run qwen3.6 (or pull from HuggingFace: Qwen/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B)
! caveat: Larger variants need a GPU; the 35B MoE wants ~24GB+ to be comfortable.
§ 03TRACKED PAID COMPETITORS4

Other paid tools we track in the same category, ranked by current Nerf Index. Lowest = least likely to nerf you next.

#1Grok (xAI)0 · no receipts 31 vs ChatGPT

1 receipt logged, none critical.

critical · 0last 90d · 030d re-nerf · 39%
#2DeepSeek19 · clean 12 vs ChatGPT

2 receipts logged, none critical.

critical · 0last 90d · 130d re-nerf · 49%
#3Gemini (Google)25 · on watch 6 vs ChatGPT

1 major change on record · roughly one every 17 days.

critical · 0last 90d · 330d re-nerf · 95%
#4Claude (Anthropic)49 · on watch 18 vs ChatGPT

2 major changes on record · roughly one every 107 days.

critical · 0last 90d · 330d re-nerf · 33%
★ PERSONAL Step-by-step migration playbook

ChatGPT Mistral Large 3 (open weights)

6 steps· ~30 min· low risk· built for macOS · Linux · WSL
Personal$9/mo

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