ChatGPT

ai-chat · OpenAI · founded 2015

Nerf Index

on watch

Executive Summary

2 major changes on record · roughly one every 242 days.

Primary use case: General chat + reasoning + code.

Total receipts

Critical

Major

Last 90 days

Peak nerf score

minor

Avg severity

~242d

Cadence

private

Funding stage

Next 30 days

17%

Next 60 days

24%

Next 90 days

Most likely change kind: billing-model-shift · Expected severity: minor

Observed 3 receipts over 483 days (cadence ~161d). Last receipt 133 days ago. Most common kind: billing-model-shift.

2026-04-02 · major · nerf 47 · billing-model-shift
OpenAI moves Codex pricing to token-based credits across Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise
On April 2, 2026 OpenAI shifted Codex usage from a flat-tier model to token-based credits across most paid tiers, plus dropped Business from $25 to $20/seat the same day.
Predicted impact: 49-70% of paid users · ~$7-$350 per user
2025-08-07 · major · nerf 36 · model-swap
OpenAI swaps ChatGPT default to GPT-5, removes GPT-4o from picker - reversed within days
On August 7, 2025 OpenAI made GPT-5 the default for all ChatGPT users and removed GPT-4o from the model picker. Backlash in r/ChatGPT was intense; OpenAI restored GPT-4o as a 'legacy model' option within days.
Predicted impact: 35-70% of paid users · ~$4-$42 per user
2024-12-05 · info · nerf 0 · tier-added
OpenAI launches $200/mo ChatGPT Pro tier - 10x the Plus price
On December 5, 2024 OpenAI introduced ChatGPT Pro at $200/mo, gating unlimited o1, o1-mini, GPT-4o, Advanced Voice, and the new o1 pro mode behind a 10x markup over the $20 Plus tier.
Predicted impact: 1-3% of paid users · ~$0-$1 savings per user

Manageable risk. Continue normal usage with email alerts on new receipts.
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Methodology: full scoring rubric at gotnerfed.com/methodology.