Gemini (Google)

ai-chat · Google · part of Alphabet · founded 2023

Nerf Index

on watch

Executive Summary

1 major change on record · roughly one every 16 days.

Primary use case: General chat + multimodal.

Risk Profile

Total receipts

Critical

Major

Last 90 days

Peak nerf score

info

Avg severity

~16d

Cadence

n/a

Funding stage

12-Month Forecast

92%

Next 30 days

97%

Next 60 days

98%

Next 90 days

Most likely change kind: other · Expected severity: info

Observed 9 receipts over 125 days (cadence ~14d). Last receipt 7 days ago. Most common kind: other.

Receipts (chronological)

2026-09-21 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 92% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-09-07 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 93% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-08-17 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 93% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-08-03 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 94% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-07-20 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 94% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-07-06 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 95% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-06-22 · info · nerf 4 · other
Forecast watch - Gemini (Google) on deck
Quiet week receipt-side, but the forecast flags Gemini (Google) as the vendor most likely to nerf next. 82% chance of a change in the next 30 days based on cadence.
Predicted impact: 0-5% of paid users · ~$0-$3 per user
2026-05-19 · info · nerf 0 · tier-added
Gemini 3.5 Flash added to the developer API; Google's migration doc warns it costs more than Gemini 3 Flash
New model SKU added to the Gemini developer API. Gemini 3 Flash Preview remains available at its prior pricing. Google's own migration guide at ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/interactions/whats-new-gemini-3.5 instructs developers to switch to the new model and explicitly notes it is more expensive. Default reasoning effort changed from high to medium. Computer Use feature not supported in 3.5 Flash.
Predicted impact: 1-3% of paid users · ~$0-$1 savings per user
2026-05-19 · major · nerf 36 · model-swap
Gemini app + AI Mode default switched from Gemini 3 Flash to 3.5 Flash with no in-app notice
At Google I/O 2026, Google made Gemini 3.5 Flash the new default model behind the Gemini app (900M MAU) and AI Mode in Google Search (1B+ MAU) globally. The prior default was Gemini 3 Flash, which had held that spot since December 17, 2025. No proactive user-facing notice accompanied the swap. Google's developer migration documentation explicitly states the new model is 'more expensive than Gemini 3 Flash Preview.'
Predicted impact: 35-70% of paid users · ~$4-$42 per user

Recommendations

Manageable risk. Continue normal usage with email alerts on new receipts.
Forecast indicates 92% probability of change in next 30 days - review contracts and budgets accordingly.
Subscribe to receipts at gotnerfed.com/feed.xml or via Slack/Discord/Teams webhooks (paid tier).
Methodology: full scoring rubric at gotnerfed.com/methodology.